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Quels enseignements tirer des coulées de débris post-incendie survenues le 9 janvier 2018 à Montecito (Californie, USA) ?☆

Abstract : Early on the morning of 9 January 2018, a rain characterized by a sudden intensity (13 mm in 5 min, e.g. 157 mm/h) at 3.45 a.m. (recorded by the Montecito rain gauge) cause flows consisting of mud, boulders and tree branches up to 15 feet (5 m) in height, and moving at estimated speeds of up to 20 miles per hour (30 km/h). Damage was remarkable: 21 dead and 2 missing; 167 injured; 408 houses damaged; estimated cost over $167 million. This event occurred mostly less than 20 days after the worst fire in California in the last century (Thomas Fire). Such phenomena (post-fire debris flows) result of complex interactions between predisposition variables (soil type, burnt areas, humidity, hydrophobicity, slopes…) and climatic forcing (rainfall intensity), and the sensitivity of the Montecito upstream basins had been well identified (with a probable flood risk estimated at 68%). Mass evacuations had also been ordered the day before. So, what can we learn about this phenomenon, could it possible to do “better”, and is it possible to reduce the number of victims in short term?
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https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03160395
Contributor : Johnny Douvinet Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Friday, March 5, 2021 - 10:46:41 AM
Last modification on : Tuesday, October 19, 2021 - 10:59:08 PM

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Johnny Douvinet, Anna Serra-Llobet, John Radke, Matthias Kondolf. Quels enseignements tirer des coulées de débris post-incendie survenues le 9 janvier 2018 à Montecito (Californie, USA) ?☆. La Houille Blanche - Revue internationale de l'eau, EDP Sciences, 2021, ⟨10.1051/lhb/2020052⟩. ⟨hal-03160395⟩

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