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Estimating an AR Model with Exogenous Driver

Abstract : In this paper, we introduce an autoregressive model which has an evolution that is driven by an exogenous pilot signal. This model shares some properties with TAR (Threshold Auto Regressive) models and STAR (Smooth Transition Auto Regressive) models. This text defines the model, it presents an estimator for this model, and an estimator for the variance of the innovation, which is not constant in this model. An exact computation of the likelihood of this driven autoregressive model is then presented. Two appendices present a state-space realization of this model and the expression of a Kalman filter for such a model.
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Contributor : Yves Grenier Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Monday, October 21, 2013 - 9:06:20 AM
Last modification on : Monday, January 11, 2021 - 4:50:01 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Wednesday, January 22, 2014 - 4:25:24 AM


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  • HAL Id : hal-00875064, version 1



Yves Grenier. Estimating an AR Model with Exogenous Driver. 2013. ⟨hal-00875064⟩



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