Abstract : This paper addresses the generalisation of stationary Hawkes processes in order to allow for a time-evolving second-order analysis. Motivated by the concept of locally stationary autoregressive processes, we apply however inherently different techniques to describe the time-varying dynamics of self-exciting point processes. In particular we derive a stationary approximation of the Laplace transform of a locally stationary Hawkes process. This allows us to define a local intensity function and a local Bartlett spectrum which can be used to compute approximations of first and second order moments of the process. We complete the paper by some insightful simulation studies.
https://hal-imt.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01153882 Contributor : François RoueffConnect in order to contact the contributor Submitted on : Thursday, May 21, 2015 - 11:51:38 AM Last modification on : Wednesday, November 3, 2021 - 6:20:32 AM Long-term archiving on: : Tuesday, September 15, 2015 - 6:31:03 AM