An adaptive Bayesian inference algorithm to estimate the parameters of a hazardous atmospheric release

Harizo Rajaona 1, 2 François Septier 1, 3 Patrick Armand 2 Yves Delignon 1, 3 Christophe Olry 4 Armand Albergel 4 Jacques Moussafir 4
1 CRIStAL - Centre de Recherche en Informatique, Signal et Automatique de Lille (CRIStAL) - UMR 9189
2 DAM/DIF - DAM Île-de-France
3 Institut TELECOM/TELECOM Lille1
4 ARIA Technologies
Abstract : In the eventuality of an accidental or intentional atmospheric release, the reconstruction of the source term using measurements from a set of sensors is an important and challenging inverse problem. A rapid and accurate estimation of the source allows faster and more efficient action for first-response teams, in addition to providing better damage assessment. This paper presents a Bayesian probabilistic approach to estimate the location and the temporal emission profile of a pointwise source. The release rate is evaluated analytically by using a Gaussian assumption on its prior distribution, and is enhanced with a positivity constraint to improve the estimation. The source location is obtained by the means of an advanced iterative Monte-Carlo technique called Adaptive Multiple Importance Sampling (AMIS), which uses a recycling process at each iteration to accelerate its convergence. The proposed methodology is tested using synthetic and real concentration data in the framework of the Fusion Field Trials 2007 (FFT-07) experiment. The quality of the obtained results is comparable to those coming from the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, a popular Bayesian method used for source estimation. Moreover, the adaptive processing of the AMIS provides a better sampling efficiency by reusing all the generated samples.
Keywords : Source term estimation Bayesian inference Monte-Carlo techniques Adaptive multiple importance sampling
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Journal articles
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https://hal-imt.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01238921
Contributor : François Septier <>
Submitted on : Monday, December 7, 2015 - 12:12:38 PM
Last modification on : Thursday, October 17, 2019 - 12:35:47 PM

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INSTITUT-TELECOM | CEA | CRISTAL-SIGMA | IMT-LILLE-DOUAI | CRISTAL | UNIV-LILLE | DAM

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Harizo Rajaona, François Septier, Patrick Armand, Yves Delignon, Christophe Olry, et al.. An adaptive Bayesian inference algorithm to estimate the parameters of a hazardous atmospheric release. Atmospheric Environment, Elsevier, 2015, 122, pp.748-762. ⟨10.1016/j.atmosenv.2015.10.026⟩. ⟨hal-01238921⟩

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