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Evaluation de stratégies de développement de nouveaux produits en situation d'incertitude. Cas d'un projet de R&D pharmaceutique

Abstract : Uncertainty suggests to look for complementary information when decision maker has to invest or not but, is it always a good solution? The objective of this article is to present a model for evaluating the development strategies in situation of uncertainty in order to confirm or not the realisation of a preliminary study bringing out new information. The model, based on decision tree techniques and Monte Carlo method, is applied to a project of drug development.
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Didier Gourc, Sophie Bougaret, Germain Lacoste. Evaluation de stratégies de développement de nouveaux produits en situation d'incertitude. Cas d'un projet de R&D pharmaceutique. Journal Européen des Systèmes Automatisés (JESA), Lavoisier, 2004, 38 (7-8), pp.847-872. ⟨10.3166/jesa.38.847-872⟩. ⟨hal-01666269v2⟩

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